However, very few actually think that Hizbullah or the Lebanese government will make a big fuss of that. The UN is expected to be checking on the situation very soon to make sure that UN SCR 425 and 426 had been carried out completely and satisfactorily, and after that, decide to post UN forces in the region to replace the Israeli Army.

News spoke today of up to 3,000 Lebanese, mostly Christians crossing the border to Israel. These seem to have been about 600 to 700 SLA officers with their families, fearing retaliation. No confirmation of these figures had so far been officially announced by any side. Today, some tension was felt as the 'liberation' process continued. It is true that not one single shot was heard, but then, the following happened:

1-The town of Marjayoun was very tense and almost empty. Many of the residents are Christians and quite a large proportion of the residents were enrolled in the SLA. As a matter of fact, the town hosted the headquarters of the SLA for years, and hence, such a dramatic change overnight was only reasonable to create a shock. Nonetheless, public officials and Hizbullah officers and religious authorities soon reached the town to make sure that all would be fine.

2-Armed men from Amal wandered the villages and escorted Hizbullah men and civilians, in a clear attempt to show off their existence. Apart from the old-time rivalry between Amal and Hizbullah, the two sides are competing for building on the harvest of the Israeli withdrawal. While Hizbullah had been behind 90% of the resistance since the late 1980s, Amal's activities became somehow noticeable in the month that preceded the withdrawal. Backed by parliament speaker, Nabih Berri who is now worried that Hizbullah might make a major breakthrough in the coming elections (August), it seems that he had given orders to Amal fighters to make a clear appearance in the South. No one, however, expects tensions to reach a confrontational stage. Hizbullah on the other hand, had ordered their men not to reveal their arms in the streets, and thus, within 48 hours, it is expected that no more armed elements will be seen anywhere in the villages.

3-The Lebanese Army has not yet made it to South Lebanon, and it will not. While the UN forces are awaited, the Lebanese police forces (aka internal security forces will be expanded by 1,500 armed men to maintain order. Hopefully, no tension will take place between these and the armed elements of different groups (Amal and Islamic Amal to mention a few, plus Hizbullah) as Israel hopes.

With the party over, several issues need to be considered urgently. First, according to my personal calculations and expectations, between $15 to $20 billion will be needed to rehabilitate the region, especially that some villages had been totally wiped out. Others have no access to water, electricity, phones or even roads. Twenty-two years have already added a heavy burden to the dark ages in which these villages had lived before. No funds are practically available, but the Lebanese government is hoping that Arab, European and other countries will be funding most of these urgent projects. In addition to this, it is important to search for work, educational and development opportunities for many of the residents of the region, specifically as work opportunities in Israel will no longer be available or possible. This is not to mention that the region is already poverty-striken, with the economic situation there worsening over the past two years due to the military escalation.

Away from the field, analysts are already at work. Syria has definitely lost a very important card with the Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon, in fact, the only card it had. Syria does not have the military power to confront Israel who is strongly backed by the US. This is not to mention the fact that Israel has already warned Syria that anything that starts on the Lebanese side targeting Israel will practically be treated as a declaration of war, hinting at the Syrian military targets in Lebanon. From the costly and humiliating experience in 1982 (when Syria and Israel were almost equal in power then), the Syrians know very well that it is not going to be easy this time.

In addition to this, Hizbullah is not expected to throw away its gains easily. While Syria had supported Hizbullah, it never controlled it, and let us not forget the bloody wars fought between the Shiite groups in the past; Hizbullah supported by Iran against Amal supported by Syria to control the Resistance Card in South Lebanon. If Hizbullah fires at Israel, the party might practically burn its own gains and achievements on the Lebanese public level, wow! just before the elections. It is according to this point that no one thinks anything will happen. Thus, despite all the tension in the region now (let's say I am quoting CNN), we should not forget that for the third day in a row, Israel has not bombed any Lebanese villages and no Hizbullah attempts had been made at Israeli targets (save those when the Israeli forces were still present).

So was it a defeat for Israel or a victory for Lebanon and the Arabs? Save the joyful faces in Lebanon and the rest of the Arab world, I have sufficient confidence to say that the Arabs did not win and Israel did not lose. There might be a few lessons to learn from this experience, but I would warn against over-learning (in fact, underlearning). As a matter of fact, if one is to look at what happened from a strategic perspective, Israel did a brilliant job, withdrawing without losing one single life, not to mention that the withdrawal took a very short time (apparently for purely strategic purposes).

But people were joyful. No one can blame them. As for the Lebanese officials, they are really hoping that this joy will continue, for as long as it does, no one is going to think about the economic recession, the public debt, and the new bill required for the reconstruction of South Lebanon. I would not be surprised if some time soon in the future, some officials start cursing Israel for withdrawing so soon (ie, in their life time). That bill might just break some mule's back!